LED packaging industry: a super multi-strong pattern forms a balance between supply and demand

Up to now, the LED industry has become a certain trillion-dollar market. Regardless of the top-level design of the government or the industry practitioners, the LED industry is optimistic about the rapid development of the industry in the next two or three years. First of all, the LED industry penetration rate (30%~40%) has doubled space, and it is still in a rapid replacement stage in recent years. Deterministic trillion-dollar market, unlimited possibilities to be explored. Up to now, the LED industry has become a certain trillion-dollar market. Regardless of the top-level design of the government or the industry practitioners, the LED industry is optimistic about the rapid development of the industry in the next two or three years. First of all, the LED industry penetration rate (30%~40%) has doubled space, and it is still in a rapid replacement stage in recent years. Secondly, the global packaging industry has continued to transfer to the mainland. According to our research, orders from foreign packaging companies Seoul Semiconductor, Samsung and other companies have gradually increased. Chinese packaging companies are facing a global market. Furthermore, as the cost of lamp beads declines, more application scenarios are gradually being developed, and new applications such as smart lighting and automotive lighting are leading the next phase of LED demand. The packaging industry is initially set, and resources and markets are concentrated in the head enterprises. The industry is currently forming a super-strong situation: a super-wood forest body is the best in the world, and its production capacity and revenue are not at the same level as its peers. After the acquisition of LEDVANCE, the scale of revenue has tripled and become a world-class LED company. Among the strongest, Guoxing Optoelectronics and Hongli Zhihui are in the second camp. The two are quite similar (revenues are between 2 billion and 3 billion), but each has its own characteristics. The third echelon is mainly a group of relatively small-scale packaging companies such as Ruifeng Optoelectronics and Jufei Optoelectronics (revenue of 1.5 to 2 billion). Although the current pattern is initially fixed, the reshuffle is still ongoing, and resources are concentrated in the head enterprises. Capacity expansion has slowed down, and supply and demand have become more balanced. In the series of surveys, we noticed a phenomenon that the production capacity of each household has not changed much compared with the first half of the year, and the capacity utilization level is not high. On the one hand, we judged that the third quarter was the low season of traditional lighting, and the growth rate of related packaging enterprises slowed down. On the other hand, several companies have new production bases under construction (several couples chose Jiangxi), and related personnel were recruited. And production equipment is expanding, and this is to prepare for the rapid expansion of the latter, without worrying about the short-term growth rate and capacity expansion slowdown. With the release of the chip expansion capacity, we judge the industry from the supply shortage to the stage of supply and demand balance. Investment Advice. Specific to the target, we continue to sing the leading Mulinsen. As the industry leader, Mulinsen's future space is far more than that, and the pattern is far more than that. For second-line packaging companies, we recommend focusing on Hongli Zhihui, which has been successful in the field of LED lights, as well as small-pitch packaging technology and leading-edge National Star Optoelectronics. Next year is the big year of sports. The following year is the founding of the country. The sports display and landscape lighting industry is bound to have good growth. It is recommended to pay attention to the related companies Liad, Zhouming Technology and Alto Electronics.

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