In the first three quarters of this year, China's oil and chemical industry continued to show a strong development trend. The sector achieved a current gross industrial output value of 38.1111 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.2%. Production maintained steady and rapid expansion, with product prices generally rising, though export growth slowed following adjustments to the national tax rebate policy.
**Steady and Rapid Growth in Production**
From January to September, cumulative production of chemical fertilizers reached 43.10 million tons, up 13.8% year-on-year, with nitrogen fertilizer production at 31.447 million tons, an increase of 12.2%. Pesticide output rose to 1.274 million tons, growing by 20.6%, with the proportion of pesticides in the market decreasing to 37.1%.
Among the "triacids and alkalis," only hydrochloric acid saw single-digit growth, while other products experienced double-digit increases. Ethylene production, however, saw a gradual decline due to oil price fluctuations, with a total of 7.787 million tons produced, up 14.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, pure benzene and refined methanol continued to grow rapidly, with outputs of 3.338 million tons and 7.206 million tons respectively, up 30.3% and 38.2% compared to the same period last year.
Synthetic resin production totaled 24.493 million tons, increasing by 18.5%, while synthetic rubber output reached 1.597 million tons, up 13.7%. Synthetic fiber raw materials also showed strong growth, with outputs of 7.602 million tons for monomers and 8.353 million tons for polymers, rising by 31.0% and 17.5% respectively.
Tire production increased significantly, with 387 million units produced from January to September, a rise of 23.8% year-on-year. Radial tires accounted for 176 million units, up 35.3%, representing 45.4% of total tire production.
**High Product Price Fluctuations**
Prices of domestic petrochemical products remained highly volatile during the first three quarters. Out of 174 tracked products, 109 saw price increases (62.6%), while 60 declined (34.5%).
Inorganic chemical raw material prices remained firm, with 21 out of 31 products experiencing price hikes, including sulfuric acid, which reached an average of 584 yuan in September, up 39% year-on-year. Hydrochloric acid prices were stable, while protopine and liquid caustic soda rose by 21.4% and 7.5% respectively. Soda ash and calcium carbide also saw significant gains, with prices up 4.9% and 12.6% respectively.
Organic chemical markets showed mixed trends, with 48 out of 72 tracked products seeing price increases, while 23 declined. Aromatic hydrocarbons like toluene, xylene, and styrene faced downward pressure due to oil price volatility.
The agrochemical market remained relatively stable, with ammonium nitrate and calcium sulfate prices rising sharply, while urea saw a slight drop. Pesticide prices continued to climb steadily.
Plastic resin prices were weak, with half of the 16 tracked products showing price increases. In September, only PVC prices rose slightly, while others fell.
Rubber prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with both natural and synthetic rubber markets showing sluggishness early in the year. However, supply constraints led to a recovery in late September, particularly for synthetic rubber.
**Export Growth Has Declined**
China’s petroleum and chemical industry completed export delivery value of 265.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 22.9% year-on-year. Total import and export trade volume reached $232.82 billion, a 21.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Imports amounted to $159 billion, up 16.4%, while exports reached $73.82 billion, up 34%. The trade deficit stood at $85.18 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year.
Crude oil imports totaled 124.576 million tons, up 13.6% year-on-year, with the crude oil trade deficit reaching $55.77 billion, up 12.7%, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the industry's overall deficit.
After the adjustment of the national export tax rebate policy on July 1, export growth slowed. Solid caustic soda output rose 2.3% year-on-year, but other products like soda ash and bismuth carbonate saw declines of 10.1% and 13.4% respectively. Strontium carbonate exports fell by 31.8%.
The policy change aims to promote a more sustainable economic model and support long-term development.
It is expected that in 2007, the oil and chemical industry will achieve a current gross industrial output value increase of over 20%, with a product sales rate above 98%. Overall, product prices will continue to fluctuate, and key economic indicators are projected to grow by around 20%.
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