In the first three quarters of this year, China's oil and chemical industry maintained a strong growth trend. The sector achieved a current gross industrial output value of 38.1111 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21.2%. Production continued to grow steadily, with most product prices rising, though export growth slowed after adjustments to the national export tax rebate policy.
**Steady and Rapid Production Growth**
During the first nine months, the cumulative production of chemical fertilizers reached 43.10 million tons, up 13.8% year-on-year. Nitrogen fertilizer output was 31.447 million tons, an increase of 12.2%. Pesticide production totaled 1.274 million tons, rising by 20.6%. The proportion of high-quality pesticides increased to 37.1%.
Among the "three acids and three alkalis," only hydrochloric acid saw single-digit growth, while others recorded double-digit increases. Ethylene production grew at a slower pace due to oil price fluctuations, reaching 7.787 million tons, up 14.7% year-on-year. Meanwhile, pure benzene and refined methanol saw robust growth, with outputs of 3.338 million tons and 7.206 million tons, respectively—up 30.3% and 38.2% from the previous year.
Synthetic resin output reached 24.493 million tons, up 18.5%, while synthetic rubber production stood at 1.597 million tons, growing by 13.7%. Synthetic fiber raw materials also expanded rapidly, with monomer and polymer outputs of 7.602 million tons and 8.353 million tons, respectively, increasing by 31.0% and 17.5%.
Tire production surged, with 387 million units produced in the first nine months—an increase of 23.8% year-on-year. Radial tires accounted for 176 million units, up 35.3%, representing 45.4% of total tire production.
**High Price Volatility**
Petrochemical product prices experienced significant fluctuations during the first three quarters. Out of 174 tracked products, 62.6% saw price increases, while 34.5% declined. Inorganic chemical raw materials remained stable, with 67.7% of 31 tracked products seeing price increases. Sulfuric acid prices rose 39% year-on-year, reaching 584 yuan per ton, while liquid caustic soda climbed 7.5% to 570 yuan.
Organic chemical markets showed mixed performance, with two-thirds of 72 tracked products seeing price increases. Aromatic hydrocarbons, such as toluene and xylene, were affected by oil price volatility, leading to declines. Agrochemicals remained relatively stable, with ammonium nitrate and calcium sulfate prices rising sharply. Pesticide prices also remained steady.
Plastic resin prices were weak overall, with only half of the 16 tracked products showing gains. Natural and synthetic rubber markets remained sluggish, though both saw slight improvements in September.
**Export Growth Slows**
China’s oil and chemical industry exported goods worth 265.1 billion yuan in the first nine months, a 22.9% rise year-on-year. Total trade volume reached $232.82 billion, up 21.5% from the same period last year. Imports rose to $159 billion, an increase of 16.4%, while exports reached $73.82 billion, up 34%. The trade deficit widened to $85.18 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year.
Crude oil imports hit 124.576 million tons, up 13.6% year-on-year, contributing nearly two-thirds of the industry’s trade deficit. After the July 1 tax rebate adjustment, export growth slowed. For example, soda ash exports fell 10.1%, and bismuth carbonate exports dropped 13.4%. This policy shift is expected to support more sustainable economic development.
Looking ahead, the industry is projected to see a current gross industrial output value growth of over 20% in 2007, with a product sales rate above 98%. Overall, prices will remain volatile, but major economic indicators are expected to grow by around 20%.
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