According to customs statistics, in the first quarter of 2011, Guangdong Province imported 25,000 tons of natural rubber , which was 21.1% lower than the same period of last year; the value was 93.78 million US dollars, an increase of 35.1%; the average import price was 3,757 USD per ton. 71.3%.
First, the main characteristics of natural rubber imports in Guangdong Province in the first quarter of this year
(I) Imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous month, and import prices hit a record high. In March, Guangdong Province imported 10,000 tons of natural rubber, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%, but it increased by 67.2% month-on-month, reversing the month-on-month decline since December last year; the average import price was 4124 US dollars per ton, a substantial increase of 72.7%. A 15% increase is a new high in history.
(2) The import of processing trade has been greatly reduced, and the import of general trade has risen against the trend. In the first quarter, Guangdong Province imported 12,000 tons of natural rubber by processing trade, a significant decrease of 40.1%, accounting for 48% of the total natural rubber imports of Guangdong Province in the same period, and imported 10,000 tons of natural rubber by general trade, an increase of 20.7% against the trend. Accounted for 41.8%.
(C) Over 90% of imports from ASEAN countries, of which imports from Thailand and Vietnam have been significantly reduced while imports from Indonesia and Malaysia have increased significantly. In the first quarter, Guangdong Province imported 23,000 tons of natural rubber from ASEAN, a decrease of 22.6%, which accounted for 92% of the total natural rubber imports in Guangdong during the same period; of which, 12,000 tons were imported from Thailand, a decrease of 38.8%; and 2,153 tons were imported from Vietnam, decreasing 34.7%; In addition, 4228 tons imported from Indonesia increased by 21.5% in contrarian; 4369 tons imported from Malaysia, a substantial increase of 50.2%.
(4) Imports by foreign-invested enterprises and private enterprises dominate, and the decline in the imports of state-owned enterprises is deeper than the overall. In the first quarter, foreign-invested enterprises imported 12,000 tons of natural rubber, a decrease of 24.8%, accounting for 48% of the total natural rubber imports in Guangdong during the same period; private companies imported 8,337 tons, a slight increase of 0.4%, accounting for 33.3%. During the same period, state-owned enterprises imported 4,780 tons, a sharp drop of 38.1%, which was 17% higher than the overall level of decline.
Second, the main reason for the sharp increase in natural rubber import prices in Guangdong in the first quarter
(I) The strong demand from the international natural rubber market has stimulated higher prices in the market. The supply of natural rubber in the world continues to thrive, especially in emerging economies such as China and India. The increase in demand for natural rubber imports has driven global market prices to rise. On March 17, the Chairman of the Thai Rubber Association stated at the 2011 China Rubber Annual Conference that it is expected that the global natural rubber production in 2011 will reach 10.97 million tons and the demand will reach 11.2 million tons. With the strong growth of other domestic and global automobile markets, domestic and foreign demand for tire products has increased significantly, driving the continuous increase in natural rubber imports and domestic consumption. China has become the world’s largest importer and consumer of natural rubber. According to the latest statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on April 10, car sales in the first quarter of this year reached 4.98 million, an increase of 8.08% year-on-year. Although the increase rate has fallen from the same period of last year, according to the prediction of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, The growth rate of China's auto sales in 2011 will remain at around 10%-15%. Under this circumstance, China's consumption of natural rubber will continue to increase during 2011, and is expected to increase by 6.0% to around 3.5 million tons; India The rapid development of the automotive market has also transformed it from a natural rubber exporting country to a pure importing country, leaping to the second largest natural rubber consumer country in the world, and the Indian Natural Rubber Council anticipates that its consumption this year will reach 1 million tons, and its output. With only 890,000 tons, there will be a supply gap of about 110,000 tons.
(b) The decrease in market supply has given rise to strong support for the rise in rubber prices. In the first quarter, the low-yield period of natural rubber, as the main producing country of Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, entered the cut-off period one after another, the production of natural rubber fell, mainly to consume inventories, and the price of rubber was apt to rise and fall. At the same time, due to the concentration of natural rubber in a few countries, to ensure foreign exchange earnings and to safeguard the interests of the country's plastic farmers, the main producing country has adopted a variety of ways to maintain market prices, such as the Thai government announced on March 16 to suspend rubber exports, and Require suppliers to reduce the amount of market supply, the rubber price is controlled at more than 120 baht per kilogram, in order to limit the low price of domestic rubber exports. In addition, at the end of March, flooding caused by continuous heavy rain in southern Thailand caused severe tapping and transportation of natural rubber, which may reduce rubber production by 50,000 tons, further exacerbating the tight supply of natural rubber in the international market, and the natural rubber industry. Prices form a supporting role.
Third, the issues worth attention and related recommendations
(I) Domestic tire companies encountered double pressure from upstream raw materials and foreign brands in the same industry. The soaring cost of natural rubber raw materials has brought tremendous pressure on China's tire industry. Since the Spring Festival this year, local tire brands such as Double Money, Triangle, Hangao, Guilun, Fengshen, Linglong, and South China have once again raised the price of domestic tires by 5%. -8%, increase the export price of tires by about 6%. Although major tire companies have repeatedly raised tire prices, they are still unable to offset the cost increase caused by raw material price increases. It is estimated that the loss of domestic tire companies exceeded 20% last year, and the loss of tire companies this year has exceeded 50%. Most tire companies started to plan to cut production or suspend production, which led to the shrinking of natural rubber imports, and adversely affected the stable development of China's tire industry. At the same time, due to higher profit margins, foreign tire brand companies did not raise prices due to substantial increases in raw materials at the end of last year. Some companies, such as Yokohama and Dunlop, instead seized more market share through price cuts and promotions, leading local brand tire companies. Faced with more severe competition. This year, although foreign brands announced collective price increases, some strong brands still launched a number of promotional products in order to capture market share. Taking Michelin tires as an example, its recently launched special products are 100-200 yuan less than the original price, which is lower than the price before the price increase. The cost pressure from rising raw materials and the pressure of competition from foreign brands in the same industry have caused the domestic tire companies to suffer from their enemies, and their production and operation are facing great difficulties.
(2) The high degree of dependence on imports leads to the lack of decision-making power over rubber prices. At present, there are more than 1.5 million mu of old rubber gardens in China with a history of 35 years or more, and about 2.1 million mu of low-yield rubber fields with a yield of 60 kg or less, which have not been timely renewed and transformed, and there are more than 1.5 million mu of young rubber fields. Insufficient investment and extended non-production period, limited resources have not been fully utilized. In 2010, China's natural rubber consumption was 3.3 million tons, the total domestic output was 647,000 tons, and the self-sufficiency rate was only 19.6%, which fell below the 30% safety line. The strong dependence of import on domestic downstream processing manufacturers can only passively accept the spot price quoted by foreign suppliers, even if the country's help and control policies are also difficult to substantially affect the international price of rubber.
(3) It is difficult to change the situation of high rubber prices in the short term. The National Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) stated that some rubber-producing countries are planning to increase production this year driven by high prices of natural rubber, among which Vietnam expects exports of natural rubber to increase by 5.6% from last year; Malaysia plans to increase production by approximately 11.8%; Increase production by about 60%; Indonesia plans to increase production by about 10%. At the same time, these rubber-producing countries have also issued corresponding rubber production plans. For example, the Thai government introduced a three-year rubber planting plan at the beginning of the year. It is estimated that by 2017, rubber production in Thailand could increase by 220,000 tons; Indonesia plans to use 400,000 hectares. The left and right rubber trees are refurbished to increase the production capacity of natural rubber; rubber planting areas in Cambodia, Malaysia and other places are also increasing. However, since rubber trees need to be grown for a period of about 7 years before they start to produce rubber, and natural rubber is affected by the climate and other weather, there are many uncertainties. The global natural rubber market continues to supply tight conditions in the short term.
Suggestions for this: First, establish a monitoring and early warning mechanism for import rubber price fluctuations, increase and start natural rubber reserves in a timely manner, in order to stabilize prices in the domestic market, reduce the risks associated with international price fluctuations, and secondly, accelerate the upgrading of domestic rubber gardens. Strengthen the promotion and cultivation of excellent rubber tree varieties, continuously improve the cultivation enthusiasm of rubber farmers, and further increase the production efficiency and self-sufficiency rate of natural rubber in China; thirdly, develop the commodity futures trading market vigorously to make the domestic commodity futures market an international influence. Commodity trading market to enhance the pricing power of international bulk commodities.
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