According to a report issued by the China Iron and Steel Association recently, with the gradual start of market demand in the later period, steel production will show a low-speed and stable operation, and iron ore demand will increase. However, iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level due to the rapid production increase of domestic mines and the higher deposits of imported mines.
China Iron and Steel Association statistics show that in 2011, the average CIF price of imported iron ore in China was US$163.84/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 28.13%. During the same period, the average price of domestic iron ore concentrate increased by 15.06%. In 2011, the average price index of CSPI steel in China Steel Association rose by only 10.13%, which was significantly lower than the increase in iron ore price. According to the statistics of the China Iron and Steel Association, in 2011, large and medium-sized steel enterprises realized a profit of 87.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.51%; sales margin was only 2.42%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.59 percentage points. Compared with the low price of the steel market, the current iron ore price level is still high.
In January this year, due to the cold weather and “Spring Festival†factors, the domestic steel production and market demand showed a low level of operation. Domestic iron ore concentrates and imported iron ore prices fluctuated slightly, and the overall price was higher than at the end of the previous year. As of the end of January, China's iron ore price index (CIOPI) was 462.49 points, an increase of 0.46% from the end of 2011. Among them, domestic iron ore price index was 385.71 points, an increase of 0.66%; imported iron ore price index was 506.63 points, an increase of 0.38%.
In the current period, China's major port iron ore inventories were 98.41 million tons, an increase of 2.9% from the end of 2011, an increase of 26.1% over the same period of last year. Nearly 100 million tons of iron ore imported at high prices will have a significant impact on the price of iron ore in the later period.
The China Steel Association pointed out that the domestic steel market was restrained by demand and funds in January and failed to achieve a good start. The overall situation showed a weak operation. Among them, construction steel, cold coils, and strip fell slightly, while hot coils, plate, steel, and high-grade steel were weakly consolidated. At present, there is no obvious relaxation of domestic policies. The situation of tight capital in the real economy still exists. Affected by the Spring Festival holidays, steel mills and circulation companies are facing strong pressures for repayment. Due to the fall in economic growth in the first quarter and concerns over the regulation of the real estate market, the outlook for the market is not optimistic, and the willingness to realize resources is strong. The market has not seen “positive†winter reserves and pull-ups in previous years, and prices have shown a weak shock. With the downstream infrastructure projects and production companies having a holiday, steel traders have gradually left the market, and the market transactions are light and priceless.
Recently, domestic monetary policy easing expectations are strong, but a stable regulatory basis determines that there is no possibility of a reversal of the policy in the later period. It is a fact that domestic economic growth continues to fall in the first quarter. The slowdown in the growth of the steel industry such as real estate, railways, machinery, and automobiles, coupled with the advancement of the Spring Festival this year compared to previous years, delayed the start-up of the market, and the demand for steel products will be in a downward trend for a long time after the holiday. Taken together, during the long period after the holiday, the domestic steel market will be in the process of slow recovery of demand and increased inventory inertia, and steel prices will continue to oscillate and bottom out.
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