Soybean market stagnation after the Dragon Boat Festival

[China Agricultural Machinery Industry News] After the Dragon Boat Festival, the domestic soybean market showed two kinds of market conditions, the Heilongjiang soybean market remained stable, and the southern soybean market increased slightly. Although the soybean market in Heilongjiang has a slight increase in grain prices, due to the small amount of grain, it has little impact on the market. At this stage, the quality of surplus grain in Heilongjiang production area has declined overall, soybean supply is in short supply, and spot purchases and sales are relatively quiet. Always maintained between 4000-4100 yuan / ton.

Soybean market stagnation after the Dragon Boat Festival

Soybean prices in the Huaihe River producing areas have risen sharply. Taking Anhui Huaibei as an example, the local soybean net grain loading price has risen to 4,800 yuan / ton, up 60-80 yuan / ton compared with the pre-holiday. However, due to the shortage of grain sources, rainy weather and the impact of wheat market in the southern producing areas, the acquisitions have stagnated, and the local grain merchants mainly focus on consumption stocks, and the enthusiasm for soybean purchase and sales has declined. China National Grain and Oil Information Network analyst Li Wei (the author) believes that the current domestic storage soybean auction is about to start, which makes the domestic soybean market become uncertain. Under the premise of the long-term weak demand in the soybean market, soybean prices are stable in the short term. The medium and small increase, but subject to certain restrictions, the current soybean market purchase and sales are sluggish.

Soybean restricted stability in Heilongjiang production area

According to the author's understanding, the soybean market in Heilongjiang is limited by many parties at this stage. Although the surplus grain is insufficient, the price remains stable. This is mainly affected by the following three points: First, the recent port closure efforts are not diminished. At present, although some oil plants have soybeans flowing into the market, the prices are high and the quantity is small. At present, the prices of imported US soybeans in the northern ports of China are between 3,780-3,820 yuan/ton, which is basically close to the price of grain rotation in parts of Heilongjiang. Second, the temporary storage soybean auction is postponed. Due to the current shortage of soybean surplus in Heilongjiang, the price is relatively high. Some of the original processing enterprises mainly purchase on demand. However, due to the unsettled auction time of the temporary storage, the wait-and-see mentality is intensified and the procurement speed is decreasing, which makes the soybean sales in Heilongjiang slow. Third, the soybean market demand is weak, and the market purchase and sales are in a sluggish state. June-August is the traditional off-season demand for soybeans. At this time, vegetables and fruits are on the market, and the weather is hot. Therefore, consumers often choose fruits and vegetables with more water, and rarely choose soy products, which also affects the consumption rate of domestic soybeans to some extent. .

The author believes that the overall purchase volume of Heilongjiang soybean production area has declined significantly at this stage. Due to insufficient surplus of grain in the hands of farmers, the market has a priceless market. Some traders choose to suspend the acquisition and consume inventory. In addition, Heilongjiang soybean practitioners are now mainly waiting to see the national reserve soybean auction, and the price of Heilongjiang soybean production area will remain stable in the short term.

Soybeans in the Huaihe River producing area are slightly stronger

After the Dragon Boat Festival, Anhui Huaibei soybean net grain loading price led to 4800 yuan / ton, Henan Zhoukou Huaiyang County net grain loading price rose to 4720 yuan / ton, Jiangsu Huai'an net grain loading price rose to 4760 yuan / ton, Compared with before the holiday, it is raised by 40-80 yuan / ton. The price increase is mainly due to the following two reasons: First, the soybean surplus grain along the Huaihe River production area bottoms out. At this stage, the surplus grain of soybeans along the Huaihe River production area has decreased significantly. The acquisition of various traders has been difficult, and the shipments have become more cautious. Only by maintaining the contracts of old customers, it is easy to send the grain to the market. Second, the price of US beans has risen. As the US soybean futures are always at a high level between 1100-1150 cents, the domestic import cost increases, and the price of imported soybeans in the northern ports rises to 3780-3820 yuan/ton, maintaining a dominant price difference of at least 1,000 yuan/ton along the Huaihe River producing area. Soybean prices are raised.

The author believes that the soybean market along the Huaihe River production area is currently in a slight upward trend. The tight supply situation of soybeans in the north and south is difficult to alleviate. Although the traditional demand is in the off-season, the southeast sales market still has rigid demand for soybeans, coupled with the recent “relief disaster”. "More, agricultural products (12.06 0.67%, buy) are affected to varying degrees, transportation is difficult, prices are slightly increased, it is likely to switch to the purchase of soy products, so the price of soybeans may continue to strengthen slightly.

In summary, the spot price trend of domestically produced soybeans is still stable at this stage, while the price of the southern producing areas still has room for upward adjustment, but it is limited by the temporary storage auction and the large number of southern wheat market. The author predicts the price of the southern producing area or Slowly approaching 4,900 yuan / ton, the short-term domestic soybean market will fall into a dilemma of buying and selling. The grain is reduced, the farmers' reluctance to sell is intensified, the sales speed of traders is blocked, and the sluggish sales of soybeans are highlighted.