The development cycle of the new round of raw material drug chemicals has already crossed the highest point and began to decline. However, the inertia of the development and the investment cycle determine that the output will increase significantly in the next 5 to 10 years, but the crisis factor has been vaguely visible. Due to the hysteresis of the transmission cycle in the product chain, the downstream of the raw material chemical industry, fine chemicals, is currently on the eve of the peak.
The potential crisis in raw materials and chemicals is precisely the opportunity for fine chemicals, because the oversupply of basic chemical raw materials will allow fine chemicals to have sufficient raw material supply. It is estimated that by 2010, China's oil refining capacity will reach 380 million tons, and C4 will be approximately 7.4 million to 9.3 million tons by-product; ethylene capacity will reach 18.11 million tons, and 7.24 million tons of C4 and C5 can be produced by-product; methanol capacity will reach 3000 Tens of tons, calculated as 30% fuel, will have 21 million tons of products to flow to fine chemicals.
The rapid development of raw materials and chemicals also provides a broad market for fine chemicals. Large-scale production of polyethylene, polypropylene, rubber, etc. requires a large amount of fine chemical products such as plastic additives and rubber auxiliaries; at the same time, the demand for fuel oil additives, lubricant additives, and petrochemical processing aids will also be met. remarkable growth.
In addition, the hysteresis of periodic wave transmission has won time for the development of fine chemicals. When prices of upstream raw materials increase, they will cause prices of fine chemical raw materials to rise, but fine chemicals are mostly buyers' markets. The rise in prices will be suppressed by downstream users, which is the most difficult period for fine chemicals. Now that this period has passed, fine chemical products have formed a new balance in the high-priced raw materials phase. The large-scale development of raw materials and chemical industry will inevitably lead to a new round of price cuts, and there will be a time lag between the price reduction of raw materials and the price reduction of fine chemical products, which will be the golden period for the development of fine chemical industries.
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